Shifts in regional water availability due to global tree restoration

Abstract Tree restoration is an effective way to store atmospheric carbon and mitigate climate change. However, large-scale tree-cover expansion has long been known increase evaporation, leading reduced local water availability streamflow. More recent studies suggest that increased precipitation, through enhanced moisture recycling, can offset this effect. Here we calculate how 900 million hectares of global tree would impact evaporation precipitation using ensemble data-driven Budyko models the UTrack recycling dataset. We show combined effects directly indirectly create complex patterns shifting availability. Large-scale by up 6% in some regions, while decreasing it 38% others. There a divergent on large river basins: rivers could lose their streamflow due for other rivers, greater counterbalanced more recycling. Several so-called hot spots forest water, including regions are already facing scarcity today. significantly shifts terrestrial fluxes, emphasize future tree-restoration strategies should consider these hydrological effects.